“A Podcast To Be Named Later”
Week #4 Fantasy Preview
Host: Chris Mitchell @CJMitch73
Guest: NY Post Fantasy Writer Drew Loftis @NYPost_Loftis
Friday Sept 27 – 12pm EST
A Weekly review of the relevant and irrelevant players and the matchups that will help owners win or lose their matchups. Chris Mitchell & Drew Loftis review EVERY game so owners can make their Start/Sit decisions.
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* Thursday Night Thoughts: Jimmy Graham and Aaron Rodgers disappointment?
coaching and scheme more than Rodgers
* Melvin Gordon Breakdown
very unlikely to play Week #4
Hesitant about playing him in Week #5 if we don’t see him in Week #4
Ekeler loses a lot of production with significant drop in touches/targets. Still relevant. Expect similar to what Tarik Cohen was expected to be.
* Grading the Replacement QB’s
Has looked good a couple times. Last year and now.
Absence of S Barkley hurts Jones, not helps. Impressive performance in first start on the road against a defense had been pretty decent in the first 2 weeks. Under duress. Impressive first start. Should the Giants have kept OBJ and should they have started Jones Opening Weekend? No. They couldn’t win the division even if Jones is legitimately good and OBJ was here.
No comment needed. Dreadful.Hopeless. Not even discussed.
Struggled in Fantasy in the Vikings. Doesn’t contribute enough in any facet. Doesn’t maximize the Fantasy players potential around him either. Maybe Jared Cook could get more targets going forward. Kamara’s workload could increase which could enhance his value.
JuJu is still a must-start but consistency may not be there after seeing Rudolph struggle. Rely on big plays. Connor is struggling, Rudolph doesn’t help him.
I agree with Mr. Loftis on Kyle Allen. The Panthers may be stuck
* Buy or Sell:
— Early Season Teams
Patriots secondary looks really really good, but the schedule has been easy. Not 100% in yet, but getting there.
— Early Season Players
Mike Evans back to being reliable
Tyler Lockett targeted a ton, must-start for now.
Davante Adams was drafted too high and not that high a guy.
Jordan Howard: Can’t trust him. One dimensional, has competition.
Terry Mclaurin looks really good, out of nowhere
Marquise Brown with Jackson looking better than expected.
David Montgomery: not getting opportunities
Devonta Freeman not getting it done and the Falcons haven’t been great either
Kirk Cousins struggling with those weapons
Tennessee Titans @Atlanta Falcons
Derrick Henry is still a must-start. Touches are there consistently enough. Mariota is hurting this offense.
Falcons are good at home. Titans D isn’t a matchup that scares you but doesn’t encourage you either. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper are starts.
Matt Ryan was drafted a bit too early this draft season. Reliable, good weapons. Probably a top 10 guy and a viable QB1 most weeks.
I agree that Henry is a must-start but I don’t like it. He is a plodder with some explosive ability, but limited upside because he relies heavily on a large workload. In small samples he can be awful and without red zone opportunities he becomes a very pedestrian option. If you bought on draft day you gotta use him, but I refused too then and if a buyer is out there, I am selling first chance I get now.
The Falcons are a better home and dome team than road and outdoors, but they often struggle against good, fundamental, physical teams and the Titans are one of those types of clubs. But, that doesn’t change anything. Hooper, Jones, Ridley and probably Freeman start while Sanu and other second tier Flex options sit. I never owned Freeman and I would be dumping him, even as a sell low now, but with RB as it is, he probably deserves at least a Flex start. If you have a viable alternative, feel free to bench him however.
New England Patriots @Buffalo Bills
The line should be more like 5 ½ than 7. Pats D has you running from Josh Allen and other Bills.
Gordon could be a sit, Edelman starts if healthy.
I like Phillip Dorsett and I love James White this week. The Bills D scares me a bit and a road game does too. The Patriots have played a joke schedule so far, not a single defense of this calibre and they struggled mightily on the road in 2018 even though we here in New England have so easily forgotten that fact. The way the Pats have owned the schedule and pounded the points, the point spread should be 12-13 and that has me worried. Vegas knows all. This line looks low which tells I am missing something. With Edelman banged up, a legitimate defense on the other side, Vegas lowballing the fish out there and this being a road game I am a little less bullish on another big win. On the flip side, the Patriots defense should outscore the Bills by more than seven points and thats before Brady throws a pass and hands a ball off to Sony Michel in the red zone. I can’t get my head away from the fact that this should be another Patriots punishing victory. Josh Allen is going to throw three interceptions and the Patriots defense is going to score at least once and will put Brady and company in scoring position by turnovers a couple times. Buy White and Dorsett in DFS, start Edelman and Gordon.
Kansas City Chiefs @Detroit Lions
Targeting for a lot of points, DFS and yearly. Stafford streaming option if he plays. Chiefs are going to score, enhances chances for Lions to score too. Chiefs are the fifth worst in points allowed to tight ends. T.J. Hochenson becomes interesting. Robinson and Hardman are a bit of a concern, but one is likely to do well. Choose and use. Watkins is the must-start, but one of those two should be relevant.
I am not buying the Lions strong start but I am buying Danny Amendola, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones as well as their running back Kerryon Johnson. This game will have points on both sides.
I might chase Robinson or Hardman in DFS, but I am not rolling the dice in yearly unless it is a difficult Flex call, then they are viable.
Oakland Raiders @Indianapolis Colts
Hilton, hasn’t practiced but he has performed injured in the past. If he plays, start him. Raiders pass D is gettable. Brissett becomes viable if Hilton plays. Not enough confidence in any Colts WR outside of Hilton. Marlon Mack is the monster this week.
I am loving Mack and on board with all the Colts I can find here.
Waller is a must-start tight end as is Josh Jacobs.
Los Angeles Chargers @Miami Dolphins
Tremain Pope could become viable in DFS with Jackson’s new status. ** We recorded the Podcast BEFORE Jackson was ruled out which is why we rambled on about his relevance on the show **
In DFS, IF THE PRICE IS ROCK BOTTOM LOW, I am interested in Melvin Gordon, especially with Jackson out. If Gordon costs near the minimum then two or three red zone carries makes that a good buy. Ekeler starts, Allen obviously.
Washington Redskins @New York Giants
Intriguing Fantasy wise because of the matchups even though as a “game,” doesn’t really catch the eye. Redskins Defense hasn’t looked scary so Giants weapons could benefit. Darrius Slaton is an intriguing punt play in DFS. Keenum is a contrarian play.
Terry McLaurin has earned must-start status when the matchups are good and is a strong Flex in all situations. I am not touching Adrian Peterson in spite of my partners willingness to throw crap at the wall and hope for DaVinci like artistic brilliance as a result.
I like the Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, I am avoiding Gallman except in DFS IF the price is very low.
Cleveland Browns @Baltimore Ravens
The obvious starts are the same, not any borderline plays that become plays in this matchup. Marquise Brown is still relevant, still being targeted, explosive but has slowed some recently.
I am not paying the prices for anyone in DFS for this one, but in yearly, it’s all in. OBJ, Landry and Chubb go as do Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown, Ingram and Mark Andrews is a must-start for the remainder of the season.
Carolina Panthers @Houston Texans
A LOT of Fantasy relevant players that may not be so obvious. This could be one of the highest scoring games on the slate and that means Fantasy points. Panthers D is not good and might be outright bad. Texans has a lot of offensive talent, and Stills and Fuller can make the big play and exploit the weaknesses. Carlos Hyde is being fed and touches make mediocre players relevant. Hyde could be that guy. Kyle Allen is a risky player and probably shouldn’t be started, but he is on the edge of being a start.
Must-starts start here, but I am not as bullish as Mr. Loftis on the rest. I can’t buy into the Panthers or the risk/reward Texans like Fuller and Stills. They are viable Flex considerations depending on your alternatives, but I can’t confidently advise starting them across the board with as much uncertainty as they have shown. Someone is going to emerge as relevant or even extremely impactful from the wide receiving cores here, but guessing which and how much is too risky to be bullish.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @Los Angeles Rams
There will be points here, but it’s difficult to pinpoint who is the clear choice. Woods, Kupp and Cooks, Evans and Godwin are all relevant but who will be the go-to guy this week? No rational to pick one over another. Stay away from Bucs runners and Winston. Rams secondary is fairly good. Stay away from Bucs tight ends as well. Howard still not being targeted.
Must-starts are starts as usual, the rest are not. I rarely recommend Cooks or Woods because while they are both worth paying for in DFS, it’s difficult to predict game-to-game which will be targeted more and therefore warrants the nod over the other. Feel good starting both, but don’t invest real money as if you know which it will be, this week or in future ones.
Seattle Seahawks @Arizona Cardinals
Love Will Dissly this week. Cardinals are atrocious vs TE’s – allowing 28 points PER GAME to tight ends. Insane bad. Lockett must-start. Chris Carson is a conundrum, but a start. Is on the hot seat. Needs to prove himself. DK Metcalf is a big-play, affordable DFS option but not reliable in yearly leagues. Larry Fitzgerald is a huge target guy and while he is, must-start.
I see with Mr. Loftis is going with the heinousness of the tight end defense by the Cardinals, but I read a posting by THE Athletic that talked about how the Cardinals could remove D.J. Swearinger from coverage on the tight end to fix a disastrous situation and that this could be the week that the adjustment catches up. We see this in sports, and Fantasy sports, a lot. EVERYONE realizes something – EVERYONE finally knows something – and then the pendulum swings. The old phrase, “Can a billion chinese really be wrong?” – the answer, “Frequently.” I am buying The Athletics prophecy that while Dissly is a must-start in yearly leagues and will be going forward, this is the week everyone in DFS uses him and they are all going to be disappointed. Be the contrarian and spend your TE$$ elsewhere and gloat on Monday.
Minnesota Vikings @Chicago Bears
Cousins struggles is hurting Stefon Diggs. Dalvin Cook is a stud and a must-start. Thielen has to start but he isn’t the star that he could be with Cousin’s struggles. Diggs is a Flex play but if you can find a viable alternative, do it. Randall Cobb could be a start over Diggs and that’s not a strong endorsement of Cobb.
Allen Robinson has been decent. David Montgomery isn’t droppable yet but should be benched.
I am on board about Cousins. He doesn’t have it in Minnesota. The scheme isn’t right, he isn’t meshing with the coaching staff. I don’t know what it is but he has the best weapons he has ever had and he isn’t getting them the ball. He hurts Thielen owners and makes Diggs a borderline Flex. Dalvin Cook might be the best RB that nobody talks much about and even in a bad matchup, he starts. Check his price in DFS and if it’s discounted compared to other stars, buy him there too.
Jacksonville Jaguars @Denver Broncos
Ugly game. Phillip Lindsay had a big week #3 and he had those types of weeks in 2018 as well. Royce Freeman is a sit, but if you have the roster space to keep him, he has shown enough to be on a bench rather than the waiver wire.
I am still on the DJ Chark Jr. train and with how mediocre the Broncos defense looked last week, I am feeling emboldened. I can’t buy Mr. Minshew in anything but two-QB leagues, but I am not going to call him a bust this week. I bet he does fine. Just not good enough to start in yearly or go contrarian in DFS. QB is deep and Minshew sits because of it.
Dallas Cowboys @New Orleans Saints
No weaknesses on this Cowboys team, except maybe the head coach. They have always found a way to lose games they shouldn’t and thats one thing about this team. No confidence in Teddy Bridgewater keeping them Super Bowl relevant. Saints D isn’t good enough to do that and Teddy B needs that. Amari Cooper is likely to play but his erttic career and being banged up, he may be a guy to sit if you have viable alternatives. He is a start in most leagues, but if you have a legitimate alternative, like Larry Fitzgerald, it’s a realistic choice. Good matchup for Randall Cobb too. Yearly leagues he is a fringe guy, but DFS his price is intriguing in tournaments.
I think the Saints step up and play a fairly good game and make Dallas earnt heir points. I am not throwing every Cowboy I can find in my lineups or even the second tier ones. The matchup is slippery good, but not an all out buffet of points for the Boyz.
I am staying away from Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints second tier wide receivers because the Cowboys defense is legit. Mark Witten starts because tight end is weak and touchdowns are targets in Fantasy and that’s what Witten does.
Cincinnati Bengals @Pittsburgh Steelers
Dalton is a modern day Jon Kitna, a reference you won’t hear anywhere else but on PTBNL. John Ross has had the targets to make him a start, but he isn’t a must-start or even a strong Flex either.
The Steelers defense should improve as Minka Fitzpatrick gets acclimated, but for now they aren’t a unit to run from. If anything, they are a team to target and the Bengals have some weapons. I am reluctant sticking with Joe Mixon, but I am not happy about it. He is a guy whose talent dictates he start even though I want to bench him and come Tuesday, I am going to wish I had, until I tear the bandaid off and just sit the sack of useless. Tyler Boyd is the best Bengal wideout even when A.J. Green returns and is a must-start this week.
For the Steelers, JuJu starts until he retires. Connor does too, until the sample makes the case he isn’t. The rest – Rudolph is killing this team and nobody else starts because of him, regardless of the matchup.
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